Friday, November 9, 2012

A Center Right Country?



Note to Republicans: It’s not Mitt, it’s you.

You have not had a Presidential candidate break 300 electoral votes in 20 years. You have had in that time three big elections- all midterms. 1994, 2002 and 2010. Most of your “big” victories come from the fact that Democrats just don’t vote in midterms.

In 2000 the GOP “won” the electoral vote 271 to 266 (Gore had a faithless elector) with a 5 EV advantage. In 2004 Bush won 286-251 (Kerry had a dumb-ass elector who voted for Edwards for VP and Potus) for an advantage of 35 EVs.

Contrast this with the crushing electoral defeats Republicans have experienced: 1992 Bill Clinton defeats George Bush Sr. 370- 168 a 202 EV victory. Four years later Clinton beat Dole 379-159 a 220 EV victory. In 2008 President Obama beat John McCain 365 to 173 for a 192 EV advantage. In 2012 he beat Mitt Romney 332 to 206 for an advantage of 126 EVs.

So if you average out our 4 wins over the past 20 years Democrats have an average margin of victory of a little over 180 EVs and Republican’s have an average of 20 EV’s margin of victory. Much of this is due to the “genius” Karl Rove’s strategy of getting 50% plus 1. It’s a strategy built on the knife edge, and the GOP is now getting cut with it.

No comments:

Post a Comment